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One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric. In some countries it's well over 50%. China of course being one of them. And they are making rapid progress with electrifying freight as well. This is already impacting their fossil fuel imports. They still import a lot. One effect that I think people underestimate is that while it will take a long time for all the ICE vehicles to disappear, the new ones do most of the driving. So, new EVs have a relatively large impact on fuel consumption and imports pretty early on. E.g. Chinese diesel imports apparently already are being impacted by their rapid deployment of tens of thousands of electrical trucks. Soon hundreds of thousands. That's already a third of the market in China and will probably head for well over 50% in a few short years. The EU is not that far behind. The ripple effect that's going to have on oil trading, refinery capacity, etc. is going to be substantial. Of course current geopolitics is speeding things up massively. LNG and oil scarcity is causing a lot of issues globally and countries are accelerating moves to reduce their dependence on that.

The yuan will never become a reserve currency as long as China maintain tight currency controls around importing and exporting it. It's very difficult to (legally) send CNY out or China. The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027

This whole house of card is very modern, there was no such thing as "Reserve currency" not even the British pound, it was the most traded currency. but holding a currency's (debt) as a foreign reserve instead of gold is very recent phenomena, even central banks reserves or their function is also rather modern phenomena. while Yuan usage in trade will reduce the US influence, the amount of assets held in dollar nominated investments is so so much bigger, and this will very slowly change if it will at all.

If you are trying to apply lessons from the gold standard era to lessons in the current era of non-convertible fiat currencies, then you are going to draw the exact opposite of the correct conclusions. There is a fundamental difference in how global capital flows work when the world uses specie flows versus when the world does not. Here is one hint. The reason why currencies like the Spanish dollar or Dutch guilder became standards were primarily questions of prestige and minting quality as you held those currencies in your own possession. But everyone could recognize a guilder and so when dealing with a foreigner, it was easier to have them. In that type of environment, being a global export power meant that you were a global gold issuer because you sold your goods to the rest of the world, got their gold (or silver), melted it down, and issued your own stamped gold or silver coins, that circulated all over the world. If that is your mental model of foreign trade today, then please read a bit further in your history books, because we live in the world of non-convertible fiat money. This means that when China sells $100 of stuff to America, it doesn't get to take that money home, the money is kept in an American bank account, with the name of that chinese seller as the beneficiary of the account. It's a non-convertible currency. A dollar is always a dollar, China can't melt it down and convert it to a Yuan. So now, to be the reserve currency doesn't mean that your specialized minting tech is being stored in central banks all over the world, it means that central banks all over the world have deposit accounts in your banking system. And that can only happen by being the world's largest importer, the exact opposite of the situation in the age of the Dutch trading empire. Your entire analysis is backwards.

I think this has the causality reversed. The dollar is the world's reserve currency because the US wields incredible negotiating power and has been the de facto military hegemony in the past few decades. It seems likely that the dominance the US has enjoyed in the recent past will diminish somewhat as other blocks with larger population bases catch up on the technology and industrialization fronts, and eventually start flexing their industrial might to create peer-level militaries.