0sake_rs · 148 points · 90 comments · kemarin · Open original
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_A_aavaa_kemarin
The books is good(ish) for it's time, but some of its analysis and forecasts are fundamentally flawed since it falls for the primary energy fallacy by comparing the chemical potential energy (in J) directly to electrical energy (also in J). The two are fundamentally different things and called be compared 1:1. E.g. To heat up your home with natural gas you need ~1J of chemical energy to get 1J of heat into the home, but with a electric heat pump you only need 1/6 J to get 1J of heat.
It is also a product of its time in terms of wind/solar vs nuclear. His forecasts of the impact of solar and wind is based on prices and performance from 2008. Prices have come down an order of magnitude since then, and performance and lifespan have increased drastically.
ZBzbs1970kemarin
Not commenting on the physics of this; I want to point out that I thought the narrative structure of this book was amazing. I have not read a hard-core piece of analysis in any field before or since that I thought was a page-turner the way this was. When I read it in 2008 I remember completing each chapter and feeling like "we're screwed" and then the next chapter feeling like "ok, we're going to make it." Presenting such analysis in the form of a race between supply and demand was narrative genius and I think should serve as an example of how ideas can be presented in a way that is both exciting and not-dumbed-down.
SIsideshowbkemarin
The updated version of this book is available in game format with the blessing of UK government https://my2050.energysecurity.gov.uk/?levers=111111111111111
Risking the HN hug of death here, but my own prototype of a car miles model inspired by the David's approach can be found at https://trafred.cardiff.ac.uk/
SAsam1rkemarin
The original author was blogging just a couple days prior to his death. Rest in peace
https://itila.blogspot.com/2015/09/what-do-you-tell-children...
DAdang21 jam yang lalu
Related:
Sustainable Energy – without the hot air (2008) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33957424 - Dec 2022 (2 comments)
Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29056343 - Oct 2021 (133 comments)
Keeping David MacKay's 'Sustainable Energy – without the hot air' up-to-date - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14009057 - March 2017 (39 comments)
"Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air" by David JC MacKay - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=845446 - Sept 2009 (31 comments)
See also:
Can solar and wind power Britain? An update of David MacKay's numbers - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38151453 - Nov 2023 (299 comments)
Sir David MacKay obituary (2016) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35670145 - April 2023 (1 comment)
David MacKay, FRS died today, his diary is remarkable - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11500614 - April 2016 (1 comment)
Comments
5 preview comments · loading full threadLog in to h4cker, then connect Hacker News to publish comments.
The books is good(ish) for it's time, but some of its analysis and forecasts are fundamentally flawed since it falls for the primary energy fallacy by comparing the chemical potential energy (in J) directly to electrical energy (also in J). The two are fundamentally different things and called be compared 1:1. E.g. To heat up your home with natural gas you need ~1J of chemical energy to get 1J of heat into the home, but with a electric heat pump you only need 1/6 J to get 1J of heat. It is also a product of its time in terms of wind/solar vs nuclear. His forecasts of the impact of solar and wind is based on prices and performance from 2008. Prices have come down an order of magnitude since then, and performance and lifespan have increased drastically.
Not commenting on the physics of this; I want to point out that I thought the narrative structure of this book was amazing. I have not read a hard-core piece of analysis in any field before or since that I thought was a page-turner the way this was. When I read it in 2008 I remember completing each chapter and feeling like "we're screwed" and then the next chapter feeling like "ok, we're going to make it." Presenting such analysis in the form of a race between supply and demand was narrative genius and I think should serve as an example of how ideas can be presented in a way that is both exciting and not-dumbed-down.
The updated version of this book is available in game format with the blessing of UK government https://my2050.energysecurity.gov.uk/?levers=111111111111111 Risking the HN hug of death here, but my own prototype of a car miles model inspired by the David's approach can be found at https://trafred.cardiff.ac.uk/
The original author was blogging just a couple days prior to his death. Rest in peace https://itila.blogspot.com/2015/09/what-do-you-tell-children...
Related: Sustainable Energy – without the hot air (2008) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33957424 - Dec 2022 (2 comments) Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29056343 - Oct 2021 (133 comments) Keeping David MacKay's 'Sustainable Energy – without the hot air' up-to-date - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14009057 - March 2017 (39 comments) "Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air" by David JC MacKay - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=845446 - Sept 2009 (31 comments) See also: Can solar and wind power Britain? An update of David MacKay's numbers - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38151453 - Nov 2023 (299 comments) Sir David MacKay obituary (2016) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35670145 - April 2023 (1 comment) David MacKay, FRS died today, his diary is remarkable - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11500614 - April 2016 (1 comment)